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- FWS: A Week in Review - 1/19-1/25
FWS: A Week in Review - 1/19-1/25
NFLX, CURI, WBD/CNN
Welcome to our inaugural post.
You can find more about our plans for The Fourth Wall Street, here.
So without delay, let’s dive right into the thoughts from some big names in entertainment.
On the Docket
Let’s jump in.
Netflix (NFLX) Q4’24 Earnings Call
Link to transcript from CapEdge
Key Topics Discussed:
Unexpected events continue into 2025 - COVID, strikes, and now the tragic LA fires.
Tragic loss of life and property affecting the industry, but not materially impacting NFLX content delivery schedule or financials
“So many people in our industry, including our employees, were deeply impacted by these fires. And the hardest hit areas of these fires, the areas around Pacific Palisades, Altadena, Malibu are very heavily populated with the folks above and below the line who we work with every single day.“
Premier appointment viewing has less impact on subscriber growth than anticipated
User base growing quicker than anticipated
Having success in building internal ad technology vs. relying on third parties
“[…] as we've consistently seen across our history, no single title really drives the majority of our acquisition or engagement. So even in an amazing quarter where we had three huge live events, we had an incredible fight, two NFL games. We had one of our biggest TV series ever in Squid Game season 2, all very successful events and titles that we are thrilled about.“
“Our estimates for subscriber adds driven by those titles combined represent a small minority of our total member acquisition in the quarter. So it's really the whole service that's working that delivered the upside that we saw this quarter. The vast majority of our net adds were driven by our broad slate in our portfolio globally.“
Ad-tier continues to open a new vector of growth
Ads-plans were 55% of sign-ups in countries that have rolled out advertising tiers.
“[…] we've seen significant growth since launch, which we're excited about. Maybe even more excited about the fact that the engagement of those ads members remains healthy. So view hours per member on the ads plan is similar to engagement on our standard non-ads plan in our ads country, which is a really good marker that we're excited about.“
With no signs of slowing down…
“So we've done the work, I would say, to meet our scale goals for advertisers in '25. And that means that increasingly, we've been able to shift more of our focus, more of our attention on making the offering better for advertisers to increase monetization of that growing inventory. This is going to remain a priority and part of our road map for at least the next several years, likely years to come after that.“
“[…] we exceeded our ads revenue target in Q4, which was an exciting milestone to get. We've doubled our ads revenue year-over-year last year. We expect to double it again this year so that should give you a sense of the slope of monetization growth that we're on. And broadly, we think of this as we're making solid progress. There is considerable work ahead of us for sure, but we don't see specific hurdles that you mentioned in the question other than just doing the work. So we think our path is relatively straightforward. And we're confident we've got a significant runway to continue to grow that revenue.“
Internalizing and Monetizing the Ad Tech Platform
Successful launch in Canada and rolling out to 12 ads countries, starting with the U.S. in April.
Creating an easier sales motion for ad buyers they believe will drive consistent revenue growth to earn a piece of the $25bn CTV ad spend market
“[…] the biggest initial benefit we have of using our own ads server is just enabling us to offer more flexibility, more ways of buying for advertisers, fewer activation hurdles, just improving the overall buyer experience. And of course, that is meant to drive increased sales and the ease of transacting with Netflix.“
“And we're already seeing the impact of those benefits in the revenue growth in Canada. So that's exciting and improves our optimism around it. And then over time, the first-party ad tech platform allows us to deliver more critical capabilities to advertisers that we hear from them that they really need. So more programmatic availability. We're talking enhanced targeting, we're leveraging more data sources, more measurement, more reporting, more incrementality studies. So being on our own tech stack enables all those advertising features, advertiser-facing features.“
Sports and Appointment TV
Strong success with an average minute audience per NFL game of 30M+ minutes
Didn't indicate an urge to write blank checks into sports given the challenging underlying economics for regular season games among the major sports leagues (think: NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, MLS).
Where other content distributors may be price takers to the juggernaut sports leagues, NFLX believes they have a unique audience they can bring to sports leagues that is younger and more global - this pitch parallels the points they can make to their advertisers as well.
“[…] we are constantly trying to broaden our programming, and live events is one of those things and sports is part of those live events. […] it doesn't really change the underlying economics of full-season Big League sports being extremely challenging.“
“So if there was a path where we can actually make the economics work for both us and the League, we certainly would explore.“
WWE Callouts
Reminder: NFLX is in a 10yr $5bn partnership with WWE for their flagship Raw programming (with some additional rights to WrestleMania & SummerSlam in int'l markets).
Drew 5M views in first week; 2x the audience Monday Night Raw was getting on linear - in line with NFLX's internal expectations.
Raw averaged ~1.6M viewers per week in 2024 - about the same range as nationally televised NBA & MLB games for context.
“Non-live" viewing (read: 'day after') grew by 25%, mostly outside the U.S. (e.g. UK, Canada, Mexico, Brazil, Australia).
“[…] we're going to be mindful of the bottom line. […] it's really important that those economics do work and the Big League sports full season economics are very hard to make work. […] for us, we want to be able to bring value to the sport like we have to date with WWE […] where we were basically able to bring a big audience, a young audience, a more global audience than linear television […].“
Or put another way by the CEO of MNTN…
“Since you're the first place people go to watch, you can turn something like WWE into a sport. You don't have to go to the NBA or NFL. I think they're taking a smart strategy of dabbling in NFL, but then finding things people wouldn't have traditionally watched, but serving it up.“
Bypassing the Theatrical Release
NFLX distributed Carry-On racked up 313M view hours in <2 months; Set to surpass Bird Box viewership.
Modest marketing spend relative to organic buzz.
“Carry-On”
“And I think it actually draws a lot of attention to how powerful the platform is to promote to our own members, how Netflix can talk to our members where they are, which is on Netflix to tell them about a great new movie they're going to love. And then we have our social channels with over 1 billion subscribers that actually keep that conversation going. So I think it's a really strong proof point that a movie born on Netflix can be a big hit and be the center of culture as well.“
General Strategy
“Our core strategy is to give our members exclusive first-run movies on Netflix. The Narnia IMAX release is a release tactic. We routinely release movies and theaters before -- a couple of weeks before to qualify for awards for -- to meet festival requirements and to prime the publicity pump a bit.“
Pricing Strategy
For those not following along at home…

“[…] we look to continue to provide more value to our members, seeking to wisely invest to increase the variety and quality of our entertainment offering. And then we listen to those members. We listen for signals like engagement, retention, acquisition. There's more secondary signals as well, all to tell us when we've achieved that increase in value. And when we've done that, then we ask them to pay a bit more to keep that virtuous cycle going.“
“So ultimately, we feel really good about our long-term monetization opportunity. We earn, right now, only 6% of the revenue opportunity in the countries and segments that we currently serve. And as long as we continue to deliver on improving the variety, the quality of our TV and film slate, we gradually expand the offering with newer content types, we believe we'll be able to increase that share progressively every year.“
Engagement Metrics
Focused on increasing the breadth and quality of content so there's something for everyone, regardless of what mood the viewer is in.
200 billion hours of programming / streaming in 2024; Avg. member watching for 2 hours a day.
“It's tough work and that they have cut out for them, but they're doing the job of winning over those moments every night and getting people who spend. Right now at about 200 billion of hours of programming or streaming last year. Our average member is watching for about 2 hours a day. So we've still got plenty of work to do to grow that, and that's what the team is very highly focused on.“
“[…] a lot of the flywheel starts with engagement. Engagement, revenue, profit, it drives flywheel.“
Moves in Short Form Video
Longer-form storytelling is the core enduring business with a massive market.
Short-form positions NFLX to remain in front of their viewers as they get pulled to other devices.
Short-form services can serve as an incubator to new storytellers who can 'graduate' into the longer-form content and broader NFLX ecosystem.
“Our goal here is to entertain all audiences, including younger audiences who may be watching disproportionately more short-form content. Now the beauty is that those folks all love film and TV shows as well. So we're constantly entertaining them with projects that get them so excited that they push play, they stick around. They go into social media accounts and talk about the shows. They do tributes to the shows. […]when you see the new season when Wednesday comes out, you're going to see all the social media platforms get flooded with tributes to this work.“
“[…] we also have got a rich history of finding projects in other places and having them up the game and be very successful on Netflix, things like Cobra Kai, Cocomelon and Somebody Feed Phil […].“
Video Games
Focused on transporting NFLX IP to their gaming suite.
Games positively impacts subscribers and retention, albeit on low numbers relative to the base of subscribers.
“[…] we already see how this approach not only extends the audience's engagement with the universe and a story but also creates a synergy that reinforces both mediums, the interactive and the noninteractive side.“
“So based on all of those learnings and under the leadership of we continue to refine our strategy. And we're going to be focusing on more narrative games based on Netflix IP. These are consistent fan favorites and we've got a lot in the library to work with there. We'll also be introducing party and couch co-op games on TV delivered from the cloud. We think of this as a successor to family board game night or an evolution of what the game show on TV used to be. So we're excited about delivering some cool experiences in that space.“
Content and Growth Spending
“[…] we're only capturing about 6% of our estimated revenue market. So we have a long way to grow. It's really about where do we put the next $1 billion and then beyond that to work in the most impactful way.“
“[…] we kind of set our growth based on our top line growth and our margin targets and then we kind of allocate as we can across the business for highest impact. And I think you've seen us do that in a responsible way where our cash spend and our content cash amortization is sort of a 1.1 ratio roughly, plus or minus between our content amort, which runs through the P&L and the cash spend, which runs the cash flow, and both are growing slower than our revenue growth.“
“And then we're investing into our growth priorities. We're pretty heavily investing into our product and engineering teams to build out ads and live and games capabilities and also our new user interface to enhance our product discovery. We're also investing in the marketing and sales line, mostly on the sales side as we build out our ads sales organization and go-to-market capabilities.“
“And beyond that, our support areas are kind of growing sort of mid, low single digits. So across the board, for the most part, we're driving margin improvement in a way that we think is appropriate for the business while investing into our growth.“
CuriosityStream Announced Additional Content Licensing Deals to Meet Growing AI Training Demands
Link to announcement from CapEdge
Upbeat Guidance and Outlook on AI
The AI hype-cycle continues, as CuriosityStream notes they’ve seen tremendous demand for their video, audio, image, and data assets to train AI models.
“AI is fundamentally transforming the technology landscape, and CuriosityStream is uniquely positioned to deliver content at scale to meet the evolving needs of AI model training.“
“These opportunities are part of our broader strategy to unlock new and significant revenue streams that complement our subscription business. In light of our work with various hyper-scalers and other tech companies for AI video training, we believe our overall licensing revenue will be more than half of our direct subscription revenue this year. And we believe this will be the case for some time going forward.“
CNN Laying Off 6% of Workforce in a Renewed Focus on Streaming
Link to announcement from The Verge
The Shift
CNN is back to developing a new streaming service, after shuttering CNN Plus in 2022.
Company is laying off 6% of its workforce as part of these changes, in tandem with a $70M investment from parent co. Warner Bros. Discovery to support the pivot.
Our objective is a simple one: to shift CNN’s gravity towards the platforms and products where the audience themselves are shifting and, by doing that, to secure CNN’s future as one of the world’s greatest news organizations. America and the world need high quality, fair-minded, trustworthy sources of news more than ever.
On Streaming
“CNN Max has been a tremendous resource for us […] We’ll continue to have a strong presence on Max, but we also believe it is not a complete answer to the future of the great linear CNN experience. Today, I can announce that we plan to develop a new way for digital subscribers at home and abroad to stream news programming from us on any device they choose.“
On Digital
“[…] in addition to the work of developing that new streaming product, Alex will announce a set of further initiatives, including a further major pivot to digital video, the development and launch of CNN’s first lifestyle-oriented digital product, working withNews to innovate in our multimedia storytelling capabilities, and creating new premium digital ad experiences to drive sustainable and scalable advertising revenue.“
On TV Scheduling
Cost prioritization is a central theme
“[…] the most economically significant expressions of the CNN TV experience will be our two great television services: CNN, the historic US cable channel that enters its 45th year in 2025, and CNN International.“
“These changes are […] placing our production costs on sustainable footing to match the changing economics of linear television platforms. Like the rest of our industry, we have to respond to these economics if we’re to maintain high quality services for our loyal existing audiences.“
“We’re also streamlining and adjusting some important aspects of how we produce ourTV programming going forward. The changes we made in morning programming a yearago both improved performance and reduced costs.“
On Changes to the Newsroom
“In 2024, our newsroom took on the complex and challenging task of merging into a single integrated organization, breaking down silos between separate digital, TV and international newsrooms. After just a few months of the new structure, we’ve seenmeasurable progress and clear signs that our new Follow the Sun structure is working. We’ve seen it help us capture global breaking news as it happens and deliver theresulting content simultaneously across multiple formats and platforms.“
“Today, we’re making further announcements in the Global News organization. We’re creating a new Video News Editorial organization as the next stage in our effort to coordinate and strengthen our video capabilities across all platforms, including linearTV.“
That’s all for our first note! As always, we encourage you to reach out if you have any topics you’d like to discuss, things you’d like to see us focus on, or pieces of news / analysis you think we missed. You can reply to this email, or set up a time to talk, here.
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